Deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccination in select Latin American and Caribbean Countries: a modelling study (preprint)

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in LAC during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021 - May 2022). MethodsPublicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and above. FindingsAfter accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that over 1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in approximately 610,000 to 2.61 million deaths averted. InterpretationThis study represents the first large-scale, multi-center estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics. FundingThis study was funded by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO).

A Strategy Transfer and Decision Support Approach for Epidemic Control in Experience Shortage Scenarios (preprint)

Epidemic outbreaks can cause critical health concerns and severe global economic crises. For countries or regions with new infectious disease outbreaks, it is essential to generate preventive strategies by learning lessons from others with similar risk profiles. A Strategy Transfer and Decision Support Approach (STDSA) is proposed based on the profile similarity evaluation. There are four steps in this method: (1) The similarity evaluation indicators are determined from three dimensions, i.e., the Basis of National Epidemic Prevention & Control, Social Resilience, and Infection Situation. (2) The data related to the indicators are collected and preprocessed. (3) The first round of screening on the preprocessed dataset is conducted through an improved collaborative filtering algorithm to calculate the preliminary similarity result from the perspective of the infection situation. (4) Finally, the K-Means model is used for the second round of screening to obtain the final similarity values. The approach will be applied to decision-making support in the context of COVID-19. Our results demonstrate that the recommendations generated by the STDSA model are more accurate and aligned better with the actual situation than those produced by pure K-means models. This study will provide new insights into preventing and controlling epidemics in regions that lack experience.

Integrative Systems Immunology Analysis Reveals Elevated Anti-AGTR1 Levels with Accumulating COVID-19 Symptoms (preprint)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) displays a broad spectrum of symptoms, with the underlying reasons for this variability still not fully elucidated. Our study investigates the potential association between specific autoantibodies (AABs), notably those that targeting G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) and renin-angiotensin system (RAS) related molecules, and the diverse clinical manifestations of COVID-19, commonly observed in patients with autoimmune conditions, including rheumatic diseases, such as systemic sclerosis. In a cross-sectional analysis, we explored the relationship between AAB levels and the presence of key COVID-19 symptoms. Hierarchical clustering analysis revealed a robust correlation between certain AABs and symptoms such as fever, muscle ache, anosmia, and dysgeusia, which emerged as significant predictors of disease severity. Specifically, AABs against CHRM5 and CXCR3 were strongly linked to fever, while AABs against CHRM5 and BDKRB1 correlated with muscle ache. Anosmia was predominantly associated with AABs against F2R and AGTR1, while dysgeusia was linked to AABs against BDKRB1 and AGTR1. Furthermore, we observed a rise in AAB levels with the accumulation of these symptoms, with the highest levels detected in patients presenting all four predictors. Multinomial regression analysis identified AABs targeting AGTR1 as a key predictor for one or more of these core symptoms. Additionally, our study indicated that anti-AGTR1 antibodies triggered a concentration-dependent degradation of eGC, which could be mitigated by the AGTR1 antagonist Losartan. This suggests a potential mechanistic connection between eGC degradation, the observed COVID-19 symptoms, and rheumatic diseases. In conclusion, our research underscores a substantial correlation between AABs, particularly those against GPCRs and RAS-related molecules, and the severity of COVID-19 symptoms. These findings open avenues for potential therapeutic interventions in the management of COVID-19.

Antigenic cartography using hamster sera identifies SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 evasion seen in human XBB.1.5 booster sera (preprint)

Antigenic assessments of SARS-CoV-2 variants inform decisions to update COVID-19 vaccines. Primary infection sera are often used for assessments, but such sera are rare due to population immunity from SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 vaccinations. Here, we show that neutralization titers and breadth of matched human and hamster pre-Omicron variant primary infection sera correlate well and generate similar antigenic maps. The hamster antigenic map shows modest antigenic drift among XBB sub-lineage variants, with JN.1 and BA.4/BA.5 variants within the XBB cluster, but with five to six-fold antigenic differences between these variants and XBB.1.5. Compared to sera following only ancestral or bivalent COVID-19 vaccinations, or with post-vaccination infections, XBB.1.5 booster sera had the broadest neutralization against XBB sub-lineage variants, although a five-fold titer difference was still observed between JN.1 and XBB.1.5 variants. These findings suggest that antibody coverage of antigenically divergent JN.1 could be improved with a matched vaccine antigen.

Comparative analysis of serological assays and sero-surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 exposure in US cattle (preprint)

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to pose a significant threat to public health globally. Notably, SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates a unique capacity to infect various non-human animal species, documented in captive and free-living animals. However, experimental studies revealed low susceptibility of domestic cattle (Bos taurus) to ancestral B.1 lineage SARS-CoV-2 infection, with limited viral replication and seroconversion. Despite the emergence of viral variants with potentially altered host tropism, recent experimental findings indicate greater permissiveness of cattle to SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infection compared to other variants, though with limited seroconversion and no clear evidence of transmission. While some studies detected SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in cattle in Italy and Germany, there is no evidence of natural SARS-CoV-2 infection in cattle from the United States or elsewhere. Since serological tests have inherent problems of false positives and negatives, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of multiple serological assays on over 600 cattle serum samples, including pre-pandemic and pandemic cattle sera. We found that SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus neutralization assays with a luciferase reporter system can produce false positive results, and care must be taken to interpret serological diagnosis using these assays. We found no serological evidence of natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or transmission among cattle in the USA. Hence, it is critical to develop more reliable serological assays tailored to accurately detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in cattle populations and rigorously evaluate diagnostic tools. This study underscores the importance of robust evaluation when employing serological assays for SARS-CoV-2 detection in cattle populations.

Multi-ancestry GWAS of diarrhea during acute SARS-CoV2 infection identifies multiple novel loci and contrasting etiological roles of irritable bowel syndrome subtypes (preprint)

A substantial proportion of acute SARSCoV2 infection cases exhibit gastrointestinal symptoms, yet the genetic determinants of these extrapulmonary manifestations are poorly understood. Using survey data from 239,866 individuals who tested positively for SARSCoV2, we conducted a multi-ancestry GWAS of 80,289 cases of diarrhea occurring during acute COVID19 infection (33.5%). Six loci (CYP7A1, LZFTl1/CCR9, TEME182, NALCN, LFNG, GCKR) met genomewide significance in a trans-ancestral analysis. The top significant GWAS hit mapped to the CYP7A1 locus, which plays an etiologic role in bile acid metabolism and is in high LD (r2= 0.93) with the SDCBP gene, which was previously implicated in antigen processing and presentation in the COVID-19 context. Another association was observed with variants in the LZTFL1/CCR9 region, which is a known locus for COVID19 susceptibility and severity. PheWAS showed a shared association across three of the six SNPs with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and its subtypes. Mendelian randomization showed that genetic liability to IBS-diarrhea increased (OR=1.40,95%,CI[1.33,1.47]), and liability to IBS-constipation decreased (OR=0.86, 95%CI[0.79,0.94]) the relative odds of experiencing COVID19+ diarrhea. Our genetic findings provide etiological insights into the extrapulmonary manifestations of acute SARSCoV2 infection.

Molecular epidemiology of invasive Group A Streptococcal infections before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland (preprint)

Group A Streptococcus (GAS, aka Streptococcus pyogenes) poses a significant public health concern, causing a diverse spectrum of infections with high mortality rates. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a resurgence of invasive GAS (iGAS) infections has been documented, necessitating efficient outbreak detection methods. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) serves as the gold standard for GAS molecular typing, albeit constrained by time and costs. This study aimed to characterize the postpandemic increased prevalence of iGAS on the molecular epidemiological level in order to assess whether new, more virulent variants have emerged, as well as to assess the performance of the rapid and cost-effective Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy as an alternative to WGS for detecting and characterizing GAS transmission routes. A total of 66 iGAS strains isolated from nine Swiss hospitals during the COVID-19 post-pandemic increased GAS prevalence were evaluated and compared to 15 strains collected before and 12 during the COVID-19 pandemic. FT-IR measurements and WGS were conducted for network analysis. Demographic, clinical, and epidemiological data were collected. Skin and soft tissue infection was the most common diagnosis, followed by primary bacteremia and pneumonia. Viral co-infections were found in 25% of cases and were significantly associated with more severe disease requiring intensive care unit admission. WGS analysis did not reveal emerging GAS genetic distinct variants after the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating the absence of a pandemic-induced shift. FT-IR spectroscopy exhibited limitations in differentiating genetically distant GAS strains, yielding poor overlap with WGS-derived clusters. The emm1/ST28 gebotype was predominant in our cohort and was associated with five of the seven deaths recorded, in accordance with the molecular epidemiological data before the pandemic. Additionally, no notable shift in antibiotic susceptibility patterns was observed. Our data suggest that mainly non-pathogen related factors contributed to the recent increased prevalence of iGAS.

A Bayesian Regression Approach for Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behavior in the Restaurant Industry (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a long-term impact on industries worldwide, with the hospitality and food industry facing significant challenges, leading to the permanent closure of many restaurants and the loss of jobs. In this study, we developed an innovative analytical framework using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for predictive modeling with Bayesian regression, aiming to estimate the change point in consumer behavior towards different types of restaurants due to COVID-19. Our approach emphasizes a novel method in computational analysis, providing insights into customer behavior changes before and after the pandemic. This research contributes to understanding the effects of COVID-19 on the restaurant industry and is valuable for restaurant owners and policymakers.

Orphanhood and caregiver death among children in the United States due to all-cause mortality 2000-2021: A Modeling Study (preprint)

Importance: Deaths of parents and grandparent caregivers linked to social and health crises threaten child wellbeing due to losses of nurturance, financial support, physical safety, family stability, and care. Little is known about the full burden of all-causes and leading cause-specific orphanhood and caregiver death beyond estimates from select causes. Objective: To estimate 2000-2021 prevalence and incidence trends of all-cause orphanhood and caregiver death among children <18, by cause, age, race/ethnicity, and state. Data Sources: National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) birth, death, race/ethnicity, and population data to estimate fertility rates and identify causes of death; 1983-1998 ICD-9 causes-of-death harmonized to ICD-10 classifications; 1999-2021 ICD-10 causes-of-death; CDC WONDER for state-specific estimates; and American Community Survey for grandparent population estimates. Data extraction and synthesis: We extracted U.S. population-level death, birth, population size, race, and ethnicity data from NCHS and attributed to each deceased individual the average number of children left behind according to subgroup-specific fertility rates in the previous 0-17 years. We examined prevalence and incidence of orphanhood by leading causes-of-death, including COVID-19, the leading 5 causes-of-death for 1983-2021, and additional leading causes for ages 15-44. We extended these to obtain state-level outcome estimates. Main outcome measures: National incidence and prevalence of orphanhood and caregiver death from 2000-2021, with orphanhood by year, parental cause-of-death and sex, child age, race/ethnicity, and state. Results: From 2000-2021, orphanhood and custodial/co-residing grandparent caregiver loss annual incidence and prevalence trends increased 49.2% and 8.3%, respectively. By 2021, 2.9 million children (4% of all children) had experienced prevalent orphanhood and caregiver death. Populations disproportionately affected by orphanhood included 5.0% of all adolescents; 6.5%, 4.8%, and 3.9% respectively of non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White children; and children in New Mexico and Southern and Eastern States. Parental death due to drug overdose during 2020-2021 surpassed COVID-19 as the leading cause of incident and prevalent orphanhood during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions and Relevance: Policies, programs, and practices aimed at orphanhood prevention, identification, and linkage to services and support of nearly 3 million bereaved children are needed, foremost prioritizing rapidly increasing overdose-linked orphanhood.

Change, Adversity, and Adaptation: Young People’s Experience of the COVID-19 Pandemic Expressed through Artwork and Semi-structured Interviews (preprint)

This study explores how young people’s mental health was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic using artwork and semi-structured interviews. This is important to understand so that policy and practice professionals can support those affected, prepare, and respond to future crises, and support young people who are isolated and restricted in other contexts. Co-designed participatory art workshops and interviews were conducted with 16–18-year-olds (N = 21) from the London-based Longitudinal cohort Study of Cognition, Adolescents and Mobile Phones (SCAMP). Artworks and interview transcripts were qualitatively co-analysed with young people. From interviews, six themes were identified: adaptation, restriction, change, challenges, overcoming adversity, and lockdown life. From artwork, four themes were identified; trapped, negative mental wellbeing, positive emotions, and technology. Everyday factors such as home environment, relationships, hobbies, habits, and education or work were key determinants of how challenged and restricted participants felt, and their capacity to overcome this. This implies that young people’s mental health services should collaborate with other sectors to address wider life determinants in a holistic way, and that clearer guidance and support in these areas could mitigate the negative mental health impacts of major environmental changes on young people.

Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality and hospital admission in the Netherlands (preprint)

This study aimed to examine acute effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on COVID-19 hospital admissions and mortality in the Netherlands. We hypothesized that exposure to increased air pollution in the preceding week might trigger an exacerbation of health of infected individuals. Associations between daily concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ≤10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and risk of hospital admissions and mortality due to COVID-19 from February to December 2020 was analyzed across all 352 Dutch municipalities grouped into 12 provinces. Time-series models were used to fit province-specific estimates, followed by meta-analyses to produce national estimates. Analyses were based on daily averages of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and maximum 8-hour running average of O3 on a 1x1 km grid and averaged on municipality level by population weight. Models were adjusted for spatiotemporal confounders, including government policies in response to the number of COVID-19 infections. Since there were only few COVID-19 cases during the summertime when O3 levels were highest, associations between O3 and COVID-19 health outcomes were not further explored. We found associations between exposure to air pollution in the preceding week (average of lag 0-7 days) and COVID-19 hospital admissions and mortality. On a national level, an interquartile range increase in PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 exposure was associated with 11-12% increased mortality risk; the risk for hospital admissions was higher: 19-25%. Observed associations were more robust for PM than NO2 in two-pollutant models. Our results suggest that short-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 may increase the risk of COVID-19 mortality and hospital admission. This indicates that, consistent with previous studies on air pollution and respiratory infections, the population at risk of being hospitalized or dying of COVID-19 is extra vulnerable to the adverse effects of short-term air pollution exposure.

The 10-year health impact, economic impact, and return on investment of the South African molecular diagnostics programme for HIV, Tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

To ensure there is adequate investment into diagnostics, an understanding of the magnitude of impact and return on investment is necessary. We therefore sought to understand the health and economic impacts of the molecular diagnostic programme in South Africa, to deepen the under-standing on the broad value of diagnostics and guide future healthcare investments. We calcu-lated the 10-year (where data were available) total cost and DALYs averted associated with molecular diagnosis of molecular TB testing (2013-2022), HIV viral load monitoring (2013-2022), early infant diagnosis of HIV infection (2013-2022), and SARS-CoV-2 testing (2020-2022). We then calculated the economic value associated with those health gains and subsequent return on investment. Since the inception of the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa, 3,035,782 DALYs have been averted as a direct consequence of this pro-gramme. This has generated an estimated $20.5 billion in economic value due to these health gains. The return on investment varied by specific diagnostic test (19.0 for tuberculosis, 1.4 for HIV viral load testing, 64.8 for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and 2.5 for SARS-CoV-2), for an average of 9.9 for the entire molecular diagnostics programme between 2013 and 2022- or $9.9 of value for each $1 invested. The molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa gen-erated a significant amount of health gains and economic value associated with these health gains, and the return-on-investment rivals other high-impact public health interventions such as childhood vaccination. Consequently, the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa is highly impactful, and will continue to be an excellent investment of South African public health expenditure.

CCQM-P199b: Interlaboratory comparability study of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number quantification (preprint)

Nucleic acid amplification tests including reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) are used to detect RNA from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Standardized measurements of RNA can facilitate comparable performance of laboratory tests in the absence of existing reference measurement systems early on in a pandemic. Interlaboratory study CCQM-P199b 'SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number quantification' was designed to test the fitness-for-purpose of developed candidate reference measurement procedures (RMPs) for SARS-CoV-2 genomic targets in purified RNA materials, and was conducted under the auspices of the Consultative Committee for Amount of Substance: Metrology in Chemistry and Biology (CCQM) to evaluate the measurement comparability of national metrology institutes (NMIs) and designated institutes (DIs), thereby supporting international standardization. Twenty-one laboratories participated in CCQM-P199b and were requested to report the RNA copy number concentration, expressed in number of copies per microliter, of the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) gene partial region (NC_045512.2: 28274-29239) and envelope (E) gene (NC_045512.2: 26245-26472) (optional measurement) in samples consisting of in vitro transcribed RNA or purified RNA from lentiviral constructs. Materials were provided in two categories: lower concentration (approximately 10 x 1 - 10 x 4/uL in aqueous solution containing human RNA background) and high concentration (approximately 10 x 9/uL in aqueous solution without any other RNA background). For the measurement of N gene concentration in the lower concentration study materials, the majority of laboratories (n = 17) used one-step reverse transcription-digital PCR (RT-dPCR), with three laboratories applying two-step RT-dPCR and one laboratory RT-qPCR. Sixteen laboratories submitted results for E gene concentration. Reproducibility (% CV or equivalent) for RT-dPCR ranged from 19 % to 31 %. Measurements of the high concentration study material by orthogonal methods (isotope dilution-mass spectrometry and single molecule flow cytometry) and a gravimetrically linked lower concentration material were in a good agreement, suggesting a lack of overall bias in RT-dPCR measurements. However methodological factors such as primer and probe (assay) sequences, RT-dPCR reagents and dPCR partition volume were found to be potential sources of interlaboratory variation which need to be controlled when applying this technique. This study demonstrates that the accuracy of RT-dPCR is fit-for-purpose as a RMP for viral RNA target quantification in purified RNA materials and highlights where metrological approaches such as the use of in vitro transcribed controls, orthogonal methods and measurement uncertainty evaluation can support standardization of molecular methods.

Identifying immune signatures of common exposures through co-occurrence of T-cell receptors in tens of thousands of donors (preprint)

Memory T cells are records of clonal expansion from prior immune exposures, such as infections, vaccines and chronic diseases like cancer. A subset of the receptors of these expanded T cells in a typical immune repertoire are highly public, i.e., present in many individuals exposed to the same exposure. For the most part, the exposures associated with these public T cells are unknown. To identify public T-cell receptor signatures of immune exposures, we mined the immunosequencing repertoires of tens of thousands of donors to define clusters of co-occurring T cells. We first built co-occurrence clusters of T cells responding to antigens presented by the same Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) and then combined those clusters across HLAs. Each cross-HLA cluster putatively represents the public T-cell signature of a single prevalent exposure. Using repertoires from donors with known serological status for 7 prevalent exposures (HSV-1, HSV-2, EBV, Parvovirus, Toxoplasma gondii, Cytomegalovirus and SARS CoV-2), we identified a single T-cell cluster strongly associated with each exposure and used it to construct a highly sensitive and specific diagnostic model for the exposure. These T-cell clusters constitute the public immune responses to prevalent exposures, 7 known and many others unknown. By learning the exposure associations for more T cell clusters, this approach could be used to derive a ledger of a person's past and present immune exposures.

Global variation in prior exposure shapes antibody neutralization profiles of SARS-CoV-2 variants up to BA.2.86 (preprint)

The highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant, BA.2.86, and its descendants are now the most frequently sequenced variants of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze antibody neutralization data from eight laboratories from the UK, USA, Denmark, and China, including two datasets assessing the effect of XBB.1.5 vaccines, to determine the effect of infection and vaccination history on neutralization of variants up to and including BA.2.86, and produce antibody landscapes to describe these neutralization profiles. We find evidence for lower levels of immune imprinting on pre-Omicron variants in sera collected from Denmark and China, which may be explained by lower levels of circulation of the ancestral variant in these countries, and the use of an inactivated virus vaccine in China.

Educator Perspectives on Stressors and Health: A qualitative study of U.S. K-12 educators in February 2022 (preprint)

Background The teaching profession, already characterized by high stress and burnout, experienced exacerbated challenges during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. While educators faced changing job demands over the course of the pandemic with switches in remote and in-person teaching along with COVID-19 transmission prevention strategies, the demands and resulting impact in the years that follow are still being explored. We sought to understand the stressors and health impacts of U.S. educators in the 2021–2022 school year, 2 years following the acute phase of the pandemic.Methods Thirty-four certified educators based in Connecticut, USA participated in 4 virtual focus groups in February 2022. A semi-structured focus group script, designed by the research team and guided by the job demands-resources model, was administered to understand stress impacts and stressors. Data were transcribed and analyzed using the constant comparative method to identify themes and sub-themes. Themes were summarized by frequency as well as by individuals.Results The majority of respondents reported educator well-being impacts of stress fell into three categories: physical health impacts and behaviors (76%; e.g. poor sleep, physical exhaustion, lack of exercise, unhealthy eating), psychological health impacts (62%; e.g. emotional exhaustion, anxiety, negative self-evaluation); and social well-being impacts and behaviors (68%; e.g. connections with family or friends, connections with others, relationships with coworkers). Sources of reported stressors included the school or district (94%), personal (65%), situational (35%), and to a lesser extent parents (24%), other work factors (15%), community (12%), students (12%), and state or national level (9%) factors. At the school/district level, stressors were related to protocols/expectations (91%, e.g. excessive or increased demands, insufficient or decreased resources) or administrators (38%). Personal level stressors included personal life (41%); other personal factors (20%); and income (17%); situational factors included the pandemic (26%) and safety concerns (9%).Conclusion Focus groups allowed us to assess the health and working conditions of Connecticut’s public education workforce 2 years following the acute phase of the pandemic. Lasting effects are relevant in the post-pandemic era and continue to pose challenges as teacher shortages increase. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce school and district-related demands and to address stress-related educator well-being.

A qualitative exploration of active ingredients and mechanisms of action of an online singing programme with mothers experiencing postnatal depression during the COVID-19 pandemic: SHAPER-PNDO study. (preprint)

Background Social distancing restrictions and the suspension of in-person treatment and support contributed to an increase in postnatal depression during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Creative health interventions can help to alleviate anxiety and depression, with studies showing that singing is particularly effective for supporting the mental health of new mothers. We adapted an in-person group singing programme (Breathe Melodies for Mums (M4M)) to online delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic to support the mental health of new mothers, and, in a feasibility study, found improvements in postnatal depression (PND) symptoms at 6-month follow up. The current qualitative study aimed to explore how and why M4M-online impacted the mental health of those taking part.Methods We took a theory-based approach using the Ingredients in Arts in Health (INNATE) Framework of ‘active ingredients’ and the Multi-level Leisure Mechanisms Framework of ‘mechanisms of action’ to identify and categorise intervention components and change mechanisms. Iterative consensus building between three researchers were complemented by qualitative semi-structured online interviews with 24 women experiencing PND symptoms who took part in M4M-online. Data were analysed inductively using reflexive thematic analysis.Results Consistency was found between the online and in-person interventions in active ingredients relating to project design, content, programme management and the composition of the group. Key differences were in the social and contextual ingredients. Psychological, social and behavioural mechanisms for improved mental health and wellbeing included: 1) Increased self-confidence as a mother, 2) Increased positive emotional responses, 3) A supported change in identity, 4) Reduced loneliness and isolation, 5) Increased social bonding and connections with family and 6) Enhanced sense of time through new routines.Conclusions Participating in online group singing can support new mothers experiencing PND by triggering psychological, social and behavioural responses that lead to improved mental health. Key programme features are identified which can be used to design future online creative health interventions or tailor in-person activities for remote delivery to support populations who may face practical and social barriers to attending in-person.

Broad immunogenicity to prior SARS-CoV-2 strains and JN.1 variant elicited by XBB.1.5 vaccination in nursing home residents (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has reduced hospitalization and mortality for nursing home residents (NHRs). However, emerging variants coupled with waning immunity, immunosenescence, and variability of vaccine efficacy undermine vaccine effectiveness. We therefore need to update our understanding of the immunogenicity of the most recent XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine to variant strains among NHRs. Methods: The current study focuses on a subset of participants from a longitudinal study of consented NHRs and HCWs who have received serial blood draws to assess immunogenicity with each SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine dose. We report data on participants who received the XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine after FDA approval in Fall 2023. NHRs were classified based on whether they had an interval SARS-CoV-2 infection between their first bivalent vaccine dose and their XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccination. Results: The sample included 61 NHRs [median age 76 (IQR 68-86), 51% female] and 28 HCWs [median age 45 (IQR 31-58), 46% female). Following XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccination, there was a robust geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) in XBB.1.5-specific neutralizing antibody titers of 17.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.3, 32.4) and 11.3 (95% CI 5, 25.4) in NHRs with and without interval infection, respectively. The GMFR in HCWs was 13.6 (95% CI 8.4,22). Similarly, we noted a robust GMFR in JN.1-specific neutralizing antibody titers of 14.9 (95% CI 7.9, 28) and 6.5 (95% CI 3.3, 13.1) among NHRs with and without interval infection, and a GMFR of 11.4 (95% CI 6.2, 20.9) in HCWs. NHRs with interval SARS-CoV-2 infection had higher neutralizing antibody titers across all analyzed strains following XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccination, compared to NHRs without interval infection. Conclusion: The XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine significantly elevates Omicron-specific neutralizing antibody titers to XBB.1.5 and JN.1 strains in both NHRs and HCWs. This response was more pronounced in individuals known to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 since bivalent vaccination.